Как макроэкономист у меня есть определенные идеи относительно путей развития армянской экономики.
Было сделано заявление о создании инвестиционного фонда и возникает банальный вопрос: во что вкладывать деньги? Здесь в дело вступает экономист: сущность работы экономиста заключается именно в том, чтобы ограниченные ресурсы использовать с максимальной эффективностью. Если экономист не решает эту задачу, то должен собрать вещи и уйти домой.
Следовательно, направления вложения инвестиционных средств зависят от задач, которые они должны решить для страны. Так, например, в течение ближайших 10-20-и лет нам необходимо решить в Армении следующие первоочередные задачи:
1. Повышение обороноспособности страны: разработка, производство и внедрение современных систем ПВО и наступательных систем; создание профессионального командирского состава; создание профессиональной разведки и контрразведки; обеспечение определенного уровня независимости, или национальной безопасности, по энергоснабжению, воздушных перевозок, снабжению топливных и продовольственных товаров и т.д. Только высокая обороноспособность позволит сохранить суверенитет страны.
2. Производство, потребление и экспорт товаров и услуг с максимальным уровнем добавленной стоимости и максимальной конкурентоспособностью. Так, например, вместо того, чтобы просто добывать и экспортировать полезные ископаемые, необходимо обеспечить максимально глубокую обработку местных, а также импортируемых сырьевых ресурсов. Здесь важно также, что для решения данной задачи, прежде всего, необходимо:
a. Модернизировать систему обучения, начиная с детского сада;
b. Вкладывать серьезные ресурсы в развитие прикладной науки. Так, например, производство представляет собой органическое единство следующих процессов: НИОКР, сам процесс производства и реализацию.
c. Обеспечить модернизацию существующих и строительство новых инфраструктурных систем: дорог, мостов, туннелей, водохранилищ и т.д. Современные инфраструктурные системы позволяют не только снизить затратность производства товаров и оказания услуг и, тем самым, повысить конкурентоспособность местной продукции, а также производить новые товары и услуги.
d. Разработать строгие стандарты по качеству и создать эффективную систему мониторинга качества товаров и услуг.
e. Создать эффективную цифровую экономику.
3. Обеспечить максимально эффективно использования сырьевых, трудовых, земельных и прочих ресурсов. Здесь, однако, необходимо учитывать не только повышение занятости ресурсов и получение прибылей, а также фактор экологии, поскольку мы хотим не только работать в Армении, а также безопасно жить. Объективным вызовом является, что важным ресурсом для армян является диаспора: диаспора не только может стать серьезным инвестором в национальную экономику и потребителем армянской продукции, а также послом армянского производителя в зарубежных странах.
Здесь необходимо учитывать, что другие страны, прежде всего, развитые страны, не ждут нас с распростертыми руками как поставщиков высококонкурентоспособных товаров и услуг. Они ожидают о нас поставок сырьевых и трудовых ресурсов. Здесь нужно серьезно потрудиться, чтобы суметь сначала производить, а затем продавать высококонкурентоспособные товары, технологии и услуги на международных рынках.
Таким образом, я предлагаю сначала определиться с задачами, которые должны решиться посредством соответствующих инвестиций, впоследствии разработать конкретные приоритетные направления и обсудить методы финансирования: кредитование, проектное финансирование, инвестиции в ценные бумаги, краудфандинг, государственно-частное сотрудничество и т.д.
Гагик А., Армения
Signatory
We need to develop minimal and maximal concepts and programs. The minimum is the preservation and evaluation of the existing state. The maximum is that which can be reached in principle and can be achieved in practice.
Convention Participant
I was born abroad, and I am the 4th generation to be born there, but the first language I spoke was Armenian. In other cities of my country, the communities are well organized, the children want to go to school, the camps are organized, but if Armenia has to do something, it should be done through "soft power," in the form of fairy tale books and materials. They should exist and be spread.
Convention Participant
There is a great connection between Armenia and India which spans over 500 years. The Armenians settlement in India went through great length to protect, preserve and advocate the Armenian Race. The Indian Armenians are one of the only Armenians who with the little population made an everlasting impact within and outside of the Armenian diaspora.
Zaven S., India
Signatory
The problem in the Diaspora is that it is not a systematic, functioning structure. It is not a model. People are united in religious or political groups, but there should be a model that unites everyone regardless of those circumstances.
Convention Participant
I am sure biotechnology has been considered as one of the prospective directions for building the future in Armenia. I hope it would be possible to create a group that could connect scientists working in different universities and companies with scientists in Armenia to discuss what kind of help is needed and what can be built together.
Here is what I could bring to table:
Part of my job is to develop monoclonal antibodies for research and diagnostic purposes in medicine. I could help establish a similar laboratory that could serve the local needs, to start with.
Maybe some of the companies, producing commercial antibodies would choose to open an R&D and manufacturing laboratory in Armenia, if we have well trained personnel.
This might seem to be a very small-scale endeavor, but it will boost the research and clinical science.
Another suggestion is to create a group that would help connect local science to business. The potential of students in Armenia and abroad could be utilized. I have an idea of a project:
The copper mining is one of the major components of our industry. New, more eco-friendly methods of precipitating copper from ore are being utilized worldwide. Bioleaching is one of them; it is essentially using bacteria to precipitate copper (or other metals) from low metal containing ore. Usually, the companies patent the consortium of bacteria.
Scientists from ArmBiotechnology in Yerevan (please see the reference below) have isolated a consortium of bacteria from ore in Kapan that can efficiently be used for this purpose. We could use student engineers to create bioreactors for mining copper from leftover ore by bioleaching, thus employing local people and cleaning the environment.
Susanna B., USA/Armenia
Signatory
First of all, I salute this great work of analysis and reflection that you have carried out.
Here are my brief remarks:
Tourism. Indeed, the near absence of direct flights and at "comfortable" times is a real brake. Moreover, there is a lack of translated Armenian literature and tourist guides about Armenia in European bookstores. There is an obvious lack of general knowledge about Armenia (culture/art, architecture, music, cuisine...) and its history. It is necessary to publish books for potential tourists who are looking for original and authentic destinations.
Tourism that includes the discovery of Armenia's rich biogeography should be developed (in addition to ecotourism and cultural and religious tourism).
Agriculture: some serious questions to be asked. I will be very cautious with the proposal of intensification in the agricultural field (fertilizers, chemistry/phytosanitary and especially, the seed!). This orientation presents strong environmental and human health risks, as the European experience has shown. Armenia is not an agricultural country that can "feed the world", but it has undeniable assets because Armenia represents a "Hot-spot" of biodiversity and endemism. Thus, more than productivity, it is the promotion (and conservation!) of endemic and local species that should be put forward. Moreover, it would be necessary to think about "seed banks of crops and "wild" plant species" to be developed or to enrich the existing world collections. I see Armenia as a country where organic agricultural production would be largely dominant: these are modern "trends" that can bring a real added value to our agricultural or natural products without such a significant harm to the environment and health of intensive and technological agriculture. The world is in full restructuring and abandonment of intensive agricultural production: we must join this movement and preserve our small country.
" The use of advanced seeds and agricultural technology” - concretely, what are we referring to (not the "Monsanto" type approach, I hope)?
Focus on production of essential products (grains, fodder, pork) to achieve self-sufficiency and food security. Expansion of exports to target countries (Russia, Ukraine, UAE, Saudi Arabia), including fruits, tobacco and wine products.
Why focus on pig farming? One of the most problematic breeding from an ecological point of view! - Only "traditional" extensive breeding, in semi-freedom (like in Corsica or Spain: food by the big oak trees, etc.) could be suitable, in my opinion. Ex. sheep and goats in mountain pastures, etc.
We could promote/export cheeses, dairy products (matsoun type, etc.) in Russia and elsewhere; our canning factories (vegetables, fruits) are famous...
Eventually, "local" spirits.
Reclamation of fallow lands to expand land use by encouraging consolidation to increase production
Attention should be paid to soil depletion (a big problem in the world) and in Europe at present, while Armenia does not have large cultivable areas (except for the Ararat valley).
It is necessary to think about the establishment of the units of treatment - valorization of manure / dung / organic waste in general. Currently, there are organic fertilizers production units (humic and fulvic acids, etc.) which are not very energy consuming and should be installed near the farms/sources of raw materials.
Use of high technologies in agriculture: yes (e.g. use of satellite data for crop management), but taking into account the climatic, geological and edaphic specificities of Armenia - a whole applied science to develop!
In a general way, I noticed serious problems of waste disposal and garbage cans in Armenia (no sorting nor recycling/valorization of waste)...
The energy question is not addressed in the summary, although it is a key question for all the economic and social branches and a sine qua non condition for the independence of the country. What about "renewable" resources (solar, geothermal, hydro...)?
About the management of water resources - France seems to me to be a good example with its watershed approach, applying the "polluter-pays" principle, the mutualization of fees to safeguard the environment... Water is declared a non-alienable national asset.
Education / Teaching: languages - in addition to English, Russian could make a comeback so that Russian specialists can contribute their knowledge. Today, only the generation of the 60-70s still speaks Russian + the diaspora in Russia.
I am not sure that the public education in the USA (except for the big schools and universities) is an example to be taken! Serious problems are well known in the schools (kindergarten, primary, secondary, high school) in the USA. Good examples are Finland and Korea.
Health: Armenia can develop a network of health care centers (in particularly suitable places: mountains, thermal waters, as in Switzerland) or personal services for foreign retirees (especially of Armenian origin).
Industry/ technology: Transition from low-cost outsourcing to specialized value-added services to increase productivity and protect the economy from the growth of multinational corporations
Yes and yes again! Armenia was once known by the production of high value-added goods. It would be necessary to find the fields where specialization and high qualification of workers can be an asset and compete with China and India (electronics, IT...). Moreover, this field will allow the development of partnerships with foreign countries. Quality and originality (at the cutting edge of technology) are the key words for Armenia (like Japan).
I hope that my questions and my personal feeling can help to better formulate the directions to be developed in Armenia.
Maia A., France
Signatory
There is a shortage of Armenian teachers in Armenian schools abroad. I think low pay is also one of the reasons. Armenia is obliged to take care of that. It is possible to send teachers for a certain period of time and provide them with a place of residence and a salary.
Convention Participant
Being Armenian is not only a wish, but also a duty.
Convention Participant
The Diaspora should work in the direction of strengthening Armenia, Armenia should be at the center. Armenia should become a strong and safe country. Like the Jews, we should be able to create a powerful country, even if it is surrounded by enemies.
Convention Participant
I hope the future of Armenia includes women; its success depends on inclusiveness.
There are countless women that are contributing to Armenia. Often, they work quietly and in the background. That does not mean that they do not have a vision or a strategy, it just means we as a community are not highlighting their voices.
Yelena A., USA
Signatory
Everything depends on our goals. In order to create the future, we need to understand what our heritage is, develop our heritage, create a new value system, and pass this new heritage on to the coming generations.
